It takes more time for 5G to break through in the consumer market

Today, my country’s 5G package users and 5G mobile phone shipments continue to rise, and the future development of 5G in the consumer market is steadily advancing. However, the development of 5G applications in the consumer market seems a bit tepid, so can 5G applications break through in the consumer market?

The recently released operator data for May shows that the number of 5G package users of the three major operators has been rising steadily, and is now moving towards the 500 million mark. Canalys recently released its latest forecast that the global smartphone market will grow by 12% in 2021, and shipments will reach 1.4 billion units, of which 5G mobile phones will account for 43%. This figure will increase to 52% in 2022, which means For the first time, 5G mobile phone shipments surpassed 4G mobile phones. It also means that the net increase in 5G mobile phone users has begun to exceed that of 4G mobile phone users, which will also become a future trend.

Then, as the market share of 5G mobile phones is increasing and the number of users is increasing, where is the room for growth of 5G users in the future? Will 5G’s “killer applications” appear in the consumer market?

According to the author's understanding, the current 5G personal user market is growing. With the advanced deployment of 5G in my country, consumers are constantly accepting 5G packages and networks. Therefore, the explosive growth of 5G in the consumer market requires patience to wait for the "burst point." Appear. For example, in the 3G era, consumers’ acceptance of 4G was not high at the beginning, but the emergence of the iPhone has changed everything, and the smartphone market has exploded. The latest research by Strategy Analytics shows that by June 2021, half of the world’s The population owns a smart phone. Today, about 4 billion people use a smart phone. It took 27 years for the world to reach this historic milestone.


Let's talk about the application of 5G in the personal market. In recent years, AR/VR, wearable devices, etc. have been recognized by more and more consumers, but there is still a long way to go to fully drive revenue in the information consumption field. It takes the entire industry to spend a lot of time and patience to actively explore the "killer applications" that may appear in the future.

In addition, the enrichment of 5G personal application types requires a certain process, and the current lack of enrichment may not necessarily be the reason for 5G. There are two possible reasons. On the one hand, the mobile Internet itself has developed to a certain stage, and various conceivable applications have been developed to a considerable extent. 5G is mainly used as a channel in the mobile Internet in the consumer field, and the expansion of the channel cannot be largely extended. To promote the enrichment of applications, the development of mobile Internet applications has encountered a bottleneck. On the other hand, 5G has improved network capabilities, but application developers have not really combined the capabilities of 5G to find new application scenarios, and application development takes time.

The business model of the 5G consumer market also needs to be adjusted. The replacement cycle of ordinary consumers is about 30 months. After consumers change 5G mobile phones, they will become 5G users. Therefore, in addition to the increase in the number of 5G users, the key to the development of 5G toC services lies in

Increase in ARPU value. In the era of providing connectivity and traffic services, the value-added part of traffic flows to OTT companies. In the future, the industrial chain needs to be restructured and OTT companies also need to feed back. From the perspective of exhibitors at MWC2021, in the 5G era, OTT companies’ attention to the telecommunications industry has increased. This is because OTT companies not only pay attention to the consumer market, but also focus on the corporate market. 5G provides basic connectivity, which creates Greater room for enterprise development.

Today, the moderately advanced strategy of my country's 5G network construction has given the industry time to explore the application of toC. With the goal of achieving a major explosion of applications in the future, the current priority is to survive, to wait for 5G to bloom in the field of personal consumption. Let 5G fly in the personal consumer market for a while, give the industry time and confidence to explore 5G personal applications, and believe that 5G will eventually usher in great development in the personal market.

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