On June 6, 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued a 5G commercial license, and it has been four years since then.  In the past four years, my country's telecom operators have made remarkable achievements in 5G network depl oyment, business development , and technological innovation. The penetration rate of 5G mobile phone users has exceeded one-third, and the development of 5G in China has passed the market smoothly. In the introduction period, it has entered the middle game stage of steady growth.

At the same time, as a global 5G pioneer, Chinese operators are also facing new challenges in many aspects such as 5G deployment and business development.  Looking back at the development history of 5G and looking forward to the next evolution direction, we can find that Only through continuous technological innovation and ideological emancipation can we hope to explore a feasible business model and realize the healthy and sustainable development of 5G and even the entire mobile communication industry develop.

The "locomotive" of global 5G development

Since the launch of the global 5G market, whether it is network deployment speed, user scale, or the exploration and trial of new services, the Chinese market has been ranked first in the world. Considering its unique large scale and strong industrialization capabilities, it can be said that China has become the "locomotive" of global 5G development, which has a huge impact and an important driving role on the global 5G industry chain.

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by the end of April 2023, the number of 5G base stations nationwide has reached 2.733 million, and 5G base stations per 10,000 people have reached 19.5 stations. The mission goal of "18 stations per 10,000 people" set in 2023. The 5G networks of the three major operators have covered all prefecture-level cities and county towns across the country, and have become an important information infrastructure for serving consumers and supporting social and economic development.

In the public user market, the total number of 5G package users of the three major operators exceeded 1.2 billion by the end of April. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology during the same period, 5G mobile phone users reached 634 million, accounting for 37.1% of the country's mobile phone users. In the 5G industry application market, the domestic industry has also actively explored, explored typical applications in mining, ports, electric power, medical care, education and other fields, tried targeted solutions, and accelerated the deployment of 5G industry virtual private networks for key scenarios. According to the information released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are currently more than 50,000 5G application innovation cases in my country, 5G has been integrated into 52 of the 97 national economic categories, and a total of more than 16,000 5G industry virtual private networks have been built, enabling 5G to empower the industry. Lay a solid foundation for development.

Whether it is in terms of network scale, user scale, or the breadth and depth of industry applications, China has become the world's largest 5G market. Relying on the huge domestic market, Huawei, ZTE and other system equipment manufacturers and OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi and other terminal manufacturers are among the best in the global 5G market, occupying an important industrial position. It can be said that my country's mobile communication industry has made great contributions to promoting the maturity and development of 5G in the world.

Challenges still exist, and the industry should explore and innovate in depth

While rejoicing at the development achievements in the past four years, we must also face up to the fact that the development of the 5G industry still faces many challenges. Especially considering that China's 5G development has been at the forefront of the world, and there is a lack of international experience for reference. The industry should pay more attention to and actively respond to these challenges. Experience and lessons learned in the process can also provide reference for global 5G development. .

One of the challenges facing 5G development is actually hidden in the above-mentioned beautiful data. Observing the 5G market data, it can be found that there is a big difference between the "number of 5G mobile phone users" disclosed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the "number of 5G package users" reported by the three major operators. Monthly data shows that although there are certain fluctuations, the ratio of the number of 5G mobile phone users to the total number of 5G package users is basically maintained at about 50%, which means that nearly half of the 5G package users still do not actually use 5G mobile phones. This difference reflects that consumers' actual demand for 5G is not as strong as expected by the industry, which will restrict the ability of operators to realize 5G commercial realization, and then affect the long-term sustainable development of 5G business.

From June 2019 to April 2023, the average mobile Internet access traffic of Chinese consumers has increased from 7.84GB/month to 16.72GB/month; % dropped to 13.9% in the first four months of this year, and the absolute value of traffic growth also showed a downward trend. The growth of mobile Internet traffic seems to be peaking, and the popularity of 5G has not changed this trend. Correspondingly, in 2022, the national mobile data traffic business revenue will only increase by 0.3% year-on-year, and it will be basically flat in the first four months of this year. Since the commercialization of 5G, although the mobile service ARPU of the three major operators has rebounded, by the end of 2022, only China Unicom has recovered to the level of the first half of 2019. It can be seen that telecom operators still face considerable difficulties and challenges in boosting the operating performance of the public user market with the help of 5G. How to increase the penetration rate of 5G terminals and how to accurately identify user segmentation needs to drive traffic consumption are issues that operators need to face.

In the field of 5G industry applications, although operators have carried out a large number of extensive explorations and practices with industry partners, both the number of deployments and operating revenue have made great progress, but in actual applications, they still face deployment costs, business models, and standards. Compliance and other challenges also require operators and the industry to conduct more in-depth exploration and innovation in terms of technical capabilities, product solutions, business models, and even regulatory standards.

Promoting development only through innovation

These explorations and innovations first need to be reflected in the improvement of network capabilities. At the beginning of 5G deployment, operators generally regard high-quality experience as the main selling point of 5G, but as the number of users gradually increases, the mobile network experience will gradually degrade. Ookla's network speed measurement report shows that from the first quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of this year, the median downlink speed of the 5G networks of the three major operators has declined to varying degrees, with the largest drop being nearly 10%.

At the same time, the continuous expansion of the user base also puts forward higher requirements for 5G network coverage. This requires operators to maintain efficient investment in 5G networks, and continuously improve network capabilities by introducing new technologies and product solutions to meet user needs. The recently launched 5G network inter-network roaming test commercial is also an effective measure to rapidly expand 5G network coverage, which will help operators maintain a balance between expanding 5G network coverage and maintaining reasonable capital investment.

The improvement of network capabilities is not only reflected in performance indicators such as speed and coverage, but also in the expansion of network capability boundaries. For example, precise indoor positioning and the capabilities of passive IoT and synaesthesia proposed in the 5G-Advanced standard will help operators better serve industry users and deepen 5G industry applications. It is worthy of joint efforts by the industry to promote related industries. The early maturity of ecology.

At the same time, operators also need to think about how to use 5G network capabilities to better provide differentiated services. According to Omdia's global consumer survey, 40% of consumers want faster uplink data rates, and in China, this proportion is as high as 51%, which is basically the same as the proportion who want to increase downlink data rates. It can be seen that with the development of mobile Internet services such as live video broadcasting, consumers' demands for network experience are also gradually evolving. Guangdong Unicom's mobile phone live broadcast package provided by the 5GQoS mechanism is a relatively successful exploration in this direction. It shows that operators still have great potential to tap in the use of network capabilities to provide differentiated services. The premise is that they need to accurately grasp details. According to the needs of users and can effectively use the refined service capabilities of the network.

In terms of industry applications, the industrial ecology of RedCap is gradually maturing, lightweight and targeted design product solutions are being launched continuously, and large-scale applications continue to be carried out, which is expected to accelerate the maturity and development of the 5G industry application ecosystem.

But we must also see that enterprise users generally hope to more closely integrate the 5G platform with their own IT systems, so that they can more effectively control and manage the 5G private network platform. On the one hand, this also requires innovative solutions in terms of network capabilities. On the other hand, it also requires operators and even industry regulators to be more emancipated, starting from the overall development of the 5G industry, giving enterprise users more space for independent control, and stimulating enterprises. The enthusiasm and creativity of users in deploying and using 5G industry solutions fundamentally promote the maturity and development of 5G industry applications.

Looking to the future and planning for a rainy day

At present, the 5G technical standard has entered the 5G-Advanced stage. With the upcoming World Radiocommunication Conference at the end of this year, the 6G standardization cycle will gradually start. The development of the mobile communication industry has entered a new stage of inheriting the past and ushering in the future, and it is expected to start a new journey with both opportunities and challenges.

On the one hand, the mobile communication network has become a global consensus as an important information infrastructure, and the mutual penetration and integration of mobile communication and vertical industries is also the general trend. These have expanded a broader development space for the mobile communication industry. On the other hand, the global mobile communication industry is generally facing difficulties such as sluggish growth in the public user market, slow start-up of the industry application market, and bottlenecks in technological innovation. The differences in the development pace and technical routes of various regional markets, as well as the evolution of the geopolitical environment, have also cast a shadow on the construction of a globally unified 6G ecosystem.

In this situation, it is even more necessary for the industry to maintain strategic focus and carefully plan for the future. While making full use of 5G and 5G-Advanced platforms to verify new-generation technologies and business applications, formulate reasonable and feasible industrial development strategies and technology development goals according to the business needs and supply chain conditions of major regional markets, and truly achieve market demand and The long-term sustainable development of the mobile communication industry can only be realized if the business model is the traction.

As a pioneer in the development of 5G in the world, the Chinese industry can consider increasing the accumulation of capabilities and experience in network deployment, business development, and market operations. On the one hand, it can drive the development of 5G in other regional markets and reduce regional development. Differences contribute to the maintenance and development of a globally unified industrial ecology; on the other hand, it can also be used as a precautionary measure. If the "fragmentation" of the global industry eventually occurs, it can fight for greater market space for the domestic industry. In short, over the past four years since the issuance of 5G commercial business licenses, the development of China's 5G industry has achieved remarkable results. At the same time, it is also facing continuous challenges. Only the upstream and downstream of the industry chain work together and continue to innovate to achieve the long-term healthy development of the mobile communication industry. .