New network deployments and enterprise momentum are expected to drive growth and double 5G connections by 2025.

New data from GSMA Intelligence shows that technological innovation and new 5G network deployments will accelerate in more than 30 countries in 2023 alone, with 5G connections expected to double over the next two years.

Of the new networks deployed in 2023, 15 are expected to be 5G standalone networks.

GSMA Intelligence's forecasts, announced during MWC Barcelona 2023, point to a significant period of growth in terms of mobile user and enterprise adoption. Consumer connections surpassed 1 billion by the end of 2022, will increase to around 1.5 billion this year, and reach 2 billion by the end of 2025. This momentum confirms that 5G is the fastest generation to deploy compared to 3G and 4G.

As of January 2023, there are 229 commercial 5G networks worldwide, and more than 700 5G smartphones are available for users.

The opening of emerging markets

Growth will also come from key markets in APAC and Latin America, such as Brazil and India, which recently launched 5G networks. India will be especially important, with service expansion by Airtel and Jio expected in 2023 to be key to continued adoption in the region. GSMA Intelligence predicts that by the end of 2025, India will have four 5G networks with 145 million new subscribers.

Many of the new 5G markets scheduled to roll out networks in 2023 are in developing regions of Africa (including Ethiopia and Ghana) and Asia. Today, 5G adoption in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 1 percent, but will exceed 4 percent by 2025 and 16 percent by 2030, thanks largely to a concerted effort by industry and government organizations to connect citizens.

“So far, 5G adoption has been driven by relatively mature markets and consumer use cases such as enhanced mobile broadband, but this is changing. We are now entering The second wave of 5G, a technology that will appeal to a range of different new markets and audiences.

"Expanding into new use cases and markets will challenge the mobile ecosystem to demonstrate that 5G is indeed flexible enough to meet these diverse needs in an inclusive and innovative way."

The rise of 5G FWA

As of January 2023, more than 90 fixed broadband service providers (the vast majority of which are mobile operators) have launched commercial 5G-based fixed wireless services in more than 48 countries. This means that around 40% of the world's current 5G commercial mobile launches include FWA products.

In the US, T-Mobile added more than half a million 5G FWA customers in Q4 2021 and Q1 2022. It expects to have 8 million FWA subscribers by 2025, compared to Verizon's goal of 5 million FWA subscribers in the same period. Furthermore, with operators such as Jio announcing ambitions to connect over 100 million households in India to 5G FWA networks, the number of FWA subscribers looks likely to grow significantly in the coming years.

While the majority of current 5G FWA deployments are concentrated in the 3.5-3.8 GHz band, several operators around the world are already using 5G mmWave spectrum as a capacity and performance booster to supplement coverage offered by lower frequency bands.

So far, only 7% of 5G launches have been in 5G mmWave spectrum, but that looks set to change given that 27% of spectrum allocations and 35% of trials are already using 5G mmWave bands. Furthermore, in 2023 alone, the industry will see another 10 countries allocated to use 5G mmWave spectrum – a significant increase from the 22 countries allocated to date. Spain received the first European 5G millimeter wave spectrum allocation this year, and Telefónica, Ericsson and Qualcomm launched the first commercial 5G millimeter wave network at the MWC Barcelona conference in 2023.

Enterprise IoT drives growth

GSMA Intelligence data also shows that for operators, the enterprise market will be the main driver of 5G revenue growth over the next decade. The revenue from enterprise customers has already accounted for about 30% of the average total revenue of major operators. As the digital scale of enterprises expands, this ratio has the potential to further increase. Edge computing and IoT technologies present further opportunities for 5G, with 12% of operators already launching private wireless solutions – a number that will grow as IoT deployments expand in 2023.

Another major development for the enterprise will be the commercial availability of 5G Advanced in 2025. 5G Advanced focuses on uplink technologies that will improve speed, coverage, mobility and energy efficiency, and support a new wave of business opportunities. The GSMA's Network Transformation Survey shows that half of operators expect to support 5G advanced commercial networks within two years of its launch. While this may be optimistic, it presents a clear opportunity for the ecosystem to execute.