Attack and start again! When we say goodbye to the old and usher in the new, it is time to explore the way forward. 2023 is a critical year for the "14th Five-Year Plan" to connect the past and the future. Which technological trends will lead the industry's development? Seek market opportunities and help the development of the ICT industry in 2023.

Trend 1: The digital economy accelerates the release of potential and empowers the integrated development of the real economy

With the gradual deepening of social digital transformation, the development of my country's digital economy has achieved reasonable growth in quantity and effective improvement in quality, and has accelerated to a new stage of deepening applications, standardized development, and inclusive sharing. The digital economy has also transformed from an economic component to a leading force of economic development.

It is estimated that by 2023, the scale of my country's digital economy will exceed 52 trillion yuan, and the development of industrial digitalization will enter an accelerated track, and the effects of digital transformation in various industries will further emerge. 5G, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, metaverse and other digital technologies can realize the integration of the digital world and the real world, realize innovation drive through digital technology, and use industrial digitization to help economic development and industrial structure optimization, which will empower Qianxing in 2023 Play a key role in the industry. The above-mentioned digital technologies are in a period of major transformation led by system innovation and intelligence. The new generation of information technology accelerates integrated innovation and industrial deployment. Subversive, cutting-edge, and integrated new products are emerging one after another. Competition in the field of digital core technologies will become more intense.

Trend 2: 5G has entered a mature stage, and large-scale development is expected to break through

In 2022, the construction speed of the global 5G network will continue to accelerate. As of the end of November 2022, 237 operators in 90 countries and regions around the world have announced the provision of 5G services. A total of 2.28 million 5G base stations have been launched in China, and the urban areas of all prefecture-level cities have achieved coverage. my country's 5G industry application has entered a critical period of large-scale development. 5G is exerting an empowering effect in multiple industries such as industry, medical care, education, and transportation, forming a number of typical application scenarios with commercial value, covering 97 major regions of the national economy. 40 in the category, and the cumulative number of 5G application cases exceeds 20,000.

In 2023, the expansion of 5G industry applications still faces three major challenges, namely value, cost and integration. At present, the value of 5G applications has not been fully realized and needs to be further explored; applications in key industries have entered a growth stage and need to accelerate large-scale development; the integration of 5G and industries still faces some challenges, and now it is necessary to convert mature cases from benchmarking enterprises extended to the entire industry. In the future, 5G development still needs to expand the breadth of the industry, deepen the depth of business, strengthen the construction of a cross-industry integration standard system, and build an industry-oriented 5G integration product system.

Trend 3: The 5G private network market is expected to accelerate in volume, and the issuance of licenses is the key

5G private network is an indispensable means for vertical industries to promote 5G application innovation, expand production efficiency, and accelerate digital transformation. With the joint efforts of all parties in the industry, 5G private network equipment has basically matured and been fully applied. The number of virtual private networks in the 5G industry has exceeded 10,000. , education, transportation and other fields are gradually promoted.

Looking forward to 2023, the 5G application field will further expand from basic connections and peripheral auxiliary links to production center links. With the implementation of supporting policies, the number of 5G demonstration projects will maintain high growth in 2023. The 5G private network ecosystem led by operators and participated by multiple parties will be further improved. In 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially announced that COMAC has obtained the frequency license for the country's first enterprise 5G private network, which will be used for 5G connections in its factories, enabling enterprises to grasp resources and deploy their own networks. With the increasingly obvious construction results, this will further increase users' recognition of "5G+Industrial Internet", making it possible to issue more 5G private network frequency licenses to leading companies in the industry in the future, and the 5G private network market is expected to accelerate.

Trend 4: Accelerate the construction of digital bases, and gigabit optical networks promote economic development

At present, my country has built the world's largest fixed broadband network, and all cities above the prefecture level across the country have achieved full coverage of optical fiber networks. Gigabit optical network builds a digital wisdom base. By the end of 2022, a total of 110 cities across the country have reached the gigabit city construction standard, accounting for about one-third of all prefecture-level cities. With the development of gigabit smart home, the evolution of the network base is the first. In terms of technology, the gigabit optical network is evolving from F5G to F5G-A, continuously improving performance in three aspects: enhanced broadband, all-optical connection, and experience assurance, and adding three new network features: green and agile, perceptual and visible, and reliable. FTTR is an important technological evolution direction for the further extension of the gigabit optical network capacity base to the user side and the realization of gigabit seamless coverage on the user side. In 2023, the industry will coordinate to accelerate the convergence and standardization of architecture and key technical solutions.

Promoting application innovation and penetration empowerment is the focus of the future development of gigabit optical networks. The current gigabit optical network technology application solution has achieved good results in some application scenarios. In the future, more gigabit optical network application technology solutions will be promoted in the industry to form a mature business model. FTTR is the top priority for operators to expand their smart home business. As home users pay more and more attention to security issues, smart security has become a new blue ocean for operators, and smart home business is also moving towards scenario-based, intelligent and differentiated services. advance. The integration of digital technology and biotechnology also brings new development opportunities for the expansion of Gigabit Smart Home business model.

Trend 5: Industrial Internet national standards are expected to be introduced one after another, and the industrial development is entering a new stage

In 2023, the "Industrial Internet Innovation Development Action Plan (2021-2023)" will enter its final year. It is foreseeable that by the end of 2023, the new industrial Internet infrastructure will be further improved, the effectiveness of integrated applications will be further demonstrated, technological innovation capabilities will be further enhanced, the industrial development ecology will be further improved, and security assurance capabilities will be further enhanced. The construction of new industrial Internet infrastructure will advance both in quantity and quality, new models and new formats will be promoted on a large scale, and the comprehensive strength of the industry will be significantly improved.

At the same time, with the introduction of three national standards in 2022, it is expected that more national standards will be issued in 2023 in the fields of industrial Internet networks, platforms, security, etc., to further improve the standard system. However, as the development of my country's industrial Internet has entered a new stage, the number of equipment networking and enterprise cloud access is increasing, and security risks have intensified, which puts forward higher requirements for network security work. Industrial Internet security still faces problems such as low cybersecurity awareness of industrial enterprises, insufficient technical protection capabilities, weak security monitoring capabilities, and insufficient support from the cybersecurity industry. The situation of industrial Internet security issues may become more severe.

Trend 6: 5G continues to evolve, moving toward cloud-network integration and computing-network integration

Today, 5.5G has started the standardization process, and 3GPP will define 5.5G technical specifications through R18, R19, and R20 versions, and continue to enrich the technical connotation of 5.5G. With the establishment of the first batch of R18 projects, 5.5G technology research and standardization have entered a substantive stage, and the direction of R18's continuous enhancement of eMBB has been established, which is expected to achieve the goal of tenfold capacity improvement. The future R19 and R20 versions will continue to enhance new services and new scenarios, artificial intelligence, full duplex, green energy-saving network, XR, 5G Internet of Things for wearable devices, 5G satellite communication, 5G Internet of Vehicles, direct connection Communications and enhanced broadband services for smart terminals will continue to evolve in subsequent standard specifications. At the architectural level, the 5.5G network will fully consider cloud native, edge network, mobile computing power perception and scheduling, and the concept of "network as a service", continuously enhance network capabilities, and eventually move towards cloud-network integration and computing-network integration.

Trend 7: 6G original technology research is accelerating, and satellite Internet and terrestrial cellular systems are moving toward integration

my country's 6G original technology research continues to advance, and all parties in the industry, universities and research institutes are accelerating the transformation of achievements. At present, the new generation of information technology represented by 6G has become the focus of global innovation. my country's IMT-2030 promotion group has launched the test of the 6G prototype system, including terahertz communication, synaesthesia integration, intelligent metasurface, distributed autonomous network and computing. Power network, promote 6G research and development in depth and solid. The 6G top-level design and end-to-end technical system have been initially formed, and the 6G vision and requirements put forward by my country have also been widely recognized by the industry.

In 2023, my country will actively carry out original technology research in 6G, computing power network, satellite Internet, next-generation artificial intelligence, metaverse and quantum information, etc. Large-scale information and communication technology innovation test devices such as the test network and the network intelligent open innovation platform help industry-university-research collaborative innovation and accelerate the transformation of results. The key technology of 6G satellite-ground integration will realize the organic integration of satellite and terrestrial cellular communications. In 2023, the industry will gradually carry out ground testing and satellite-ground joint testing.

Trend 8: The computing power network leverages its strength to go to the "Qingyun", and computing power sharing will benefit more industries

With the deepening of the concept of computing power network and accelerated promotion, the industry consensus of "using the network to strengthen computing and using computing to promote the network" has become popular. A new type of productivity that integrates power, storage capacity, and transport capacity. In February 2022, the "East Counts West" project was fully launched, injecting the strongest impetus into the development of my country's computing power network. The rapid growth of the computing power industry is driven by the construction of computing power infrastructure, and the scale of my country's computing power industry will continue to grow.

Taking "counting from the east and calculating from the west" as an example, in 2023, as the deployment of related industries gradually deepens, computing power sharing will benefit all walks of life, and the networking of computing power infrastructure will make substantial progress; demand is increasingly strong, driving the scale of computing power Further expansion, it is estimated that by the end of 2023, the total computing power of national data centers will exceed 200EFLOPS; the advantages of intelligent computing power are prominent, and it is predicted that the intelligent computing power will reach 70%~80% of the new computing power in the future; edge computing will follow 5G, industrial Internet The construction is accelerating, and looking at industry applications, the industrial intelligent computing network of "5G + edge computing" will usher in the initial stage.

Trend Nine: To achieve independent innovation, security and controllability, and "National Cloud" to continue to triumph

At present, the development of domestic cloud computing is affected by changes in domestic and foreign competition situations. Self-control and data security have been raised to unprecedented heights, and the industrial structure has undergone tremendous changes. With the advantages of self-controllability, safety and reliability, the "National Cloud" represented by Tianyi Cloud has achieved rapid growth in market share in recent years. Tianyi Cloud ranks second in the public cloud IaaS market share for four consecutive years.

At present, the "National Cloud" is mainly dominated by operators, with the participation of central enterprises. The right to speak of Internet manufacturers in the field of government and enterprise services may face challenges, especially in the context of strengthening data security and privacy protection in China. If the "National Cloud" becomes a model implemented by local governments, it will indeed create a certain pressure in the short term for leading cloud service providers that provide "overall solutions". In 2023, the "National Cloud" with the advantages of "self-controllable, safe and reliable, inclusive services, cloud-integrated digital intelligence, green and low-carbon, and ecological openness" will continue to coordinate the development of technological innovation, facility construction, and security protection systems Deployment to serve the overall development of my country's digital economy.

Tenth trend: The value of the Internet of Things industry is further enhanced, and the market value of health equipment is expected to grow rapidly

In 2022, my country will become the first country among the world's major economies to realize "superhuman things". As of the end of November 2022, the three major telecommunications companies have developed 1.818 billion cellular IoT terminal users, exceeding the number of mobile phone users by 134 million. It accounts for 51.9% of the number of mobile network terminal connections. At the same time, it should also be seen that the Internet of Things platform market continues to "reshuffle". In the second half of 2022, corporate giants such as Google, Bosch, IBM, and Ericsson have successively announced the closure or sale of their Internet of Things platforms. Main reason for exit.

In 2023, it is expected that more than 43 billion devices will be connected to the Internet of Things worldwide, and they will generate, share, collect data, and help people utilize data in various ways. These two very important technologies, digital twin and metaverse, will be integrated to better promote the development of the industry. IoT security has also received much attention. The number of IoT devices will explode after 2023. Enterprises, device manufacturers, and security experts should strengthen cooperation to deal with "malicious attackers" and minimize their chances of stealing valuable data. Chance. In 2023, the market value of IoT health devices will grow rapidly, and IoT governance and supervision will receive more attention. The European Union is expected to introduce laws requiring smart device manufacturers and operators to comply with stricter rules, including how to collect and store data And securing data, among other things, are just some of a series of new regulations being enforced around the world.

Trend 11: Internet giants are making efforts in the industrial Internet, and the integration of digital and real industries will lead to new industrial formats

As the consumer Internet enters a "bottleneck period" of growth, the to C stock market in the Internet industry has become saturated, and new breakthroughs are required to continue to develop. Internet giants are scrambling to make efforts in the to B field, taking the digital transformation of the real economy as the starting point, and raising the integration of digital and real to an unprecedented strategic height.

Digital and real integration is the key foothold of the digital economy. Nowadays, Internet giants follow the trend, deeply cultivate the digital real sector, and organically integrate the technology accumulation of the consumer Internet era with traditional enterprises. The value insights and driving capabilities brought by data, and the widespread agile capabilities built around the cloud, the superposition of the two builds a digital cloud fusion capability, which will become a new value growth engine for enterprises to promote "business digitalization, digital businessization" . In 2023, there is a high probability that the negative growth of the Internet industry will end, and major companies will "get rid of the virtual and turn to the real", further develop the industrial Internet field, organically integrate the technology accumulation of the consumer Internet era with traditional enterprises, and promote data and technological elements to inject new energy into the real economy. Kinetic energy helps the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and promotes the birth of new industries and new formats.

Trend 12: Metaverse "flies into the homes of ordinary people", and digital humans may become standard equipment for enterprises

After experiencing the "explosion" of the previous two years, Metaverse has entered a relatively pragmatic stage in 2022. With the holding of events such as the Winter Olympics, Metaverse applications have shown unique charm. Virtual digital humans have appeared one after another, the 2022 Beijing Service Trade Fair will launch the Metaverse Pavilion for the first time, and the Metaverse innovation and development plan will be introduced one after another... In 2022, the Metaverse will continue to appear in the context of the Internet, and has made great achievements in consumer hardware, content ecology, and infrastructure. staged progress.

2023 is a critical year for the Metaverse industry. As the industry application door is gradually opened, enterprises will go all out to seize the high ground in the virtual world in 2023, promote the ingenious "marriage" of Metaverse and "digital twins", and accelerate the integration of new AI technologies and The integrated development of virtual reality interactive capabilities is expected to promote Metaverse to achieve multiple breakthroughs in applications such as digital humans and 3D rendering. Guided by user needs, Metaverse is expected to usher in a period of application explosion in e-commerce, finance, medical care, education, government affairs and other fields; oriented by actual value, the industrial application of Metaverse will attract more and more attention from the industry.

Trend Thirteen: The "Second Curve" Goes Further, and Digital Services Become a "Track" for the Three Major Operators

In the first half of 2022, thanks to the rapid expansion of emerging businesses such as cloud computing, data centers, and computing power networks, the three major operators will focus on the digital economy, and the "second curve" will perform well. China Telecom's industry digital business revenue reached 58.9 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 50% of incremental revenue; China Mobile's digital transformation revenue reached 110.8 billion yuan, becoming the main driving force for China Mobile's revenue growth; China Unicom's industrial Internet revenue achieved 36.9 billion yuan, contributing 72% of the new revenue, becoming the "first engine" of performance growth.

In 2023, centering around industrial digitalization, digital industrialization, and digital intelligence represented by artificial intelligence, the digital business of the three major operators will show a trend of "making further progress", deepening and expanding their respective characteristic businesses, and exploring digital transformation Endogenous driving force for revenue growth. Taking 5G, cloud computing and other technologies as the starting point, and making good use of the advantages of the leading layout, the three major operators will focus on expanding application scenarios, and are committed to providing integrated solutions from terminal to network, from cloud to software services, and unite upstream and downstream industries , to jointly build a new information service system in the digital economy era.

Trend Fourteen: "Rise" or "Sink", 2023 will usher in a critical period for the development of radio and television

After obtaining the 5G license, China Radio and Television has achieved important results in 5G network construction and enabling industry applications. As of September 2022, all 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan have opened radio and television 5G network services, marking a new breakthrough in the integrated development of China Radio and Television's national cable TV network integration and radio and television 5G construction. China Radio and Television and China Mobile are actively promoting the joint construction and sharing of 5G networks, focusing on building a 700MHz 5G network. At present, the two parties have jointly built and shared 850,000 5G base stations. At present, China Radio and Television's No. 192 segment has more than 5 million users, and more than 500 5G mobile phones support the 700MHz frequency band.

2023 will be a critical period for the "rise" or "sink" of China Radio and Television. The other three operators are all going further and further on the road of digitalization, promoting the large-scale implementation of 5G empowerment in thousands of industries. As the fourth largest operator, China Radio and Television still has a long way to go in enabling the digital transformation of the industry. At present, China Radio and Television has yet to expand users in the to C business, and needs to further expand and enrich the 5G industry application scenarios in the to B field. In the future, China Radio and Television will also need to find 5G applications that are more in line with its own positioning, and continue to deepen mining, elderly care, education, government affairs, industrial Internet, emergency broadcasting, smart edge and other fields, and give full play to the advantages of cultural digitalization and 700MHz golden frequency band technical capabilities. High-efficiency 5G networks serve thousands of households and industries.

Trend 15: The 10th Anniversary of Mobile Resale, Virtual Operators Enter the "New Track" of IoT Resale

In the past ten years, virtual operators have gone through the process from pilot to formal operation, and then to full-scale business rollout. Although it has high hopes, it has not changed the industry structure. As of the end of June 2022, the number of mobile resale online users was 80.07 million, a decrease of 10.11 million from the end of 2021, and the cumulative revenue of the mobile resale industry was 2.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%; however, the number of companies with positive revenue growth The number is 22, a decrease of 7 compared with 2021. This is insignificant compared with the billions of users and hundreds of billions in revenue of the three basic telecom operators. The decisive factors of the communication industry structure are still in the hands of telecom operators.

The Internet of Things has always been considered a "new way out" for virtual operators. At the beginning of 2023, the first IoT resale license was officially issued, and mobile resale companies officially entered the "new track" of IoT resale. It is believed that more and more virtual operators will obtain IoT resale licenses. In this era of "superman of things", the number of IoT connections may reach 100 billion, and there is huge room for growth of IoT resale business. However, the communication cost of a single device in the Internet of Things is far lower than that of a mobile phone user, but the incremental value provided to users around the connection is huge. If virtual operators can do a good job of connecting services around the resale business, they can get greater benefits. income.

Trend 16: The smartphone market continues to slump and is expected to recover in the second half of the year

The development of the smartphone market will be sluggish in 2022. Data show that from January to September, global smartphone shipments fell by 8.88% year-on-year, and domestic smartphone shipments fell by 21.1% year-on-year. Affected by this, mainstream mobile phone manufacturers such as vivo, OPPO, and Xiaomi all showed negative growth, adjusted their inventories one after another, and continued to explore new growth points. Obtain contrarian growth.

It is expected that the sluggish development of the terminal industry will continue until 2023, the shipment of smartphones will continue to decline, the replacement cycle will continue to prolong, and the phenomenon of homogenization of smartphones will continue. However, with the decline in supply chain prices, the increase in the market share of high-end mobile phones and folding screen mobile phones, and the continuous upgrading of mobile phone images and gaming experience, the decline in the Chinese mobile phone market will narrow next year. A source of confidence in the industry, the entire mobile phone industry is expected to recover in the second half of this year.

Trend 17: Huawei's overall business has stopped falling, and Huawei's mobile phones are subject to change

2022 is the year when Huawei will gradually turn from the "wartime state" in response to the United States' continuous sanctions. In this year, Huawei's business as a whole will stop falling, and the effect of new growth momentum will be highlighted. The ICT infrastructure business will maintain steady growth. With rapid growth, the competitiveness and user experience of smart car components have been significantly improved. But it is undeniable that the inability to mass-produce HiSilicon chips has led to a sharp drop in the competitiveness of Huawei's mobile phones. The shipments have dropped again and again, and Huawei's terminal business is still declining. With HiSilicon's chip inventory "returning to zero", the industry has predicted that Huawei may sell its mobile phone business line in 2023 to reduce losses.

2023 is a critical year for Huawei to maintain normal operations under the normalization of sanctions. Huawei will seize the development opportunities of digitalization and low-carbonization, optimize the resource allocation of 5G, intelligent connected vehicles, cloud and other businesses, give full play to the advantages of the industrial portfolio, and achieve high-quality growth. The ICT infrastructure business must be proactive, seize the opportunities of digital transformation in various industries, and achieve effective growth; Huawei Cloud must become the base and enabler of digitalization in various industries; digital energy must dare to invest in strategic opportunity windows to enhance product competition To effectively manage the risk of uncertainty in the supply of global bulk commodities; the smart auto parts business focuses on key incremental components, and strives to achieve commercial scale.

Trend Eighteen: The chip industry may face a greater decline, and companies are optimizing their production capacity layout

2022 is a year for the development of the semiconductor industry to gain momentum. On the one hand, the terminal demand is weak, and the semiconductor industry dominated by consumer electronics has entered a down cycle; on the other hand, the demand for chips in 5G, automobiles, data centers, industry and other fields has risen, and the conversion of new and old kinetic energy in the chip industry has accelerated, and chip companies have optimized their products. Combining, adjusting the layout of production capacity, and developing multiple "tracks" to resist market risks and seek long-term growth.

The development trend of the semiconductor industry in 2023 is still not optimistic. Gartner predicts that the revenue of chip companies will drop by 3.6% in 2023, and global semiconductor capital expenditures will face the largest decline since 2008. But at that time, chip manufacturers may find a balance point in terms of products, production capacity, and strategy, and can fully respond to market risks; coupled with innovations in 5G, autonomous driving, metaverse and other fields, as well as the recovery of new consumer electronics such as folding screens, the semiconductor industry is ushering in demand. A long-term trend of additions and upgrades is foreseeable. It is expected that the market conditions of the semiconductor industry will gradually improve in 2023.

Trend 19: Enterprises are accelerating their layout, and intelligent connected vehicles are ushering in a period of rapid development

In 2022, with the joint efforts of all aspects of the industry, my country has formed a relatively complete intelligent networked vehicle technology chain, automatic driving system integration, laser radar, control decision-making, algorithm, AI chip, smart cockpit, CV2X, Beidou positioning, etc. Breakthroughs have been made in the independent research and development of key technologies, which has formed a trend of running in parallel with the world's leading manufacturers. Some products have achieved pre-installed mass production and application, which has strongly supported the development of my country's intelligent networked vehicles.

With the vigorous development of the intelligent networked automobile industry, more and more companies have entered the game. For example, terminal manufacturers Xiaomi and Apple have increased investment in car manufacturing, OPPO has launched a series of smart car solutions, chip manufacturer Qualcomm has launched cockpit chips and digital chassis, and ARM continues to promote the innovation of smart car chips... 2023 , the development of technologies in the fields of electric, networked, and intelligent will continue to profoundly shape the automotive industry and stimulate consumer demand. It is estimated that the compound annual growth rate of intelligent networked vehicles will be 16.8% in the next five years, and the intelligent networked vehicle market will will usher in rapid development.

Trend 20: More emphasis is placed on data security, and data governance measures will continue to improve

Data resources are the source of power to promote the high-quality development of the digital economy. With the continuous development of technologies and industries such as the Internet, 5G, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and industrial Internet, my country's data volume continues to show explosive growth. At present, my country's big data industry The scale has exceeded one trillion yuan.

The compliance and efficient circulation and use of data resources can fully stimulate the potential of data elements, empower the real economy, and comprehensively promote the strength and excellence of the digital economy. In 2023, my country will pay more attention to the utilization and governance of data elements, further accelerate the process of data legislation and the improvement of supporting measures, and promote the effective circulation, development and utilization of data. As a unified infrastructure for the collection, integration, sharing, and opening of public data, the construction of the national integrated government big data system will continue to accelerate, targeting the quantity, quality, and scope of data openness in each province, as well as data application scenarios, application quality, and diversity. In the current situation with obvious gaps, in 2023, the standardized use of data elements will be anchored in terms of systems, platforms, and applications, and data circulation, development and utilization will be promoted to the greatest extent.