The situation in 2022 is more severe than expected.

Needless to say, the macroeconomic environment is obvious to all.  From the perspective of the internal communication industry, the situation is not optimistic - the large-scale construction of 5G is coming to an end. At present, in addition to the expansion of radio and television 5G, 5G room distribution, and transmission network capacity, there will be fewer and fewer operators with a large amount of centralized procurement. .

In other words, the cyclical investment in the communications industry has moved from peak to trough, and the revenue of industry companies will be inevitably affected.

As the operator market is gradually cooling off, the entire communications industry has begun to transform, taking the government-enterprise (government enterprise) market as a new growth point and investing resources in the layout in order to maintain future survival.

However, the operational difficulty of the government-enterprise market is no less than that of the operator market.  The complex customization scene, coupled with the extreme sensitivity to cost, determines that this is a "harder bone".  Moreover, in the case of a macroeconomic downturn, the situation in this market is more difficult to open.

There is no doubt that winter has arrived for the communications industry.

Under the winter, the work and life of all correspondents will be impacted. Layoffs and unemployment will be more and more around us. Every correspondent should prepare for the worst.

In today's article, Xiao Zaojun, as a past person and a middle-aged correspondence correspondent who has lost his job, will seriously talk to everyone about the coping and preparation for unemployment, and give some personal suggestions. There is also a reference if something unfortunate happens.

Differences in the probability of layoffs

The communications industry is huge and there are many companies. Different types of companies have far different chances of layoffs.

As the upstream of the industry, as a state-owned enterprise, the probability of layoffs of the three major operators is very low, and the most is salary reduction. And equipment manufacturers, including state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, and foreign enterprises, have a very high probability of layoffs in the next few years. Not to mention subcontractors, it has never been lower.

Several major equipment manufacturers in the communication industry currently have their own troubles.

As the largest equipment manufacturer, Huawei's growth momentum has been curbed due to the impact of U.S. sanctions, and the situation is not too optimistic. In the future, Huawei's operating pressure will increase, and the possibility of large-scale layoffs in some product lines cannot be ruled out.

In addition to Huawei, several domestic equipment manufacturers have relatively small market shares, benefiting from the vacuum caused by Huawei's market contraction, but will benefit in the short term. However, from a long-term perspective, the weakening of the overall communication market will eventually lead to a decline in the revenue of these equipment manufacturers. It is only a matter of time.

What's more serious is that under the influence of geopolitics, the inside can't get out, and the outside can't get in, and a market pattern of "demarcating the land" has gradually formed. This situation is a double injury, not conducive to domestic enterprises, not conducive to foreign enterprises, not conducive to equipment manufacturers, but also not conducive to customers. Without a fair and free competition market for a long time, it is difficult to have healthy development.

As Chinese employees of foreign equipment manufacturers, the risk of unemployment in recent years is the greatest.

Although foreign equipment manufacturers have repeatedly emphasized their persistence, under the general trend of domestic substitution, the decline in market share is inevitable, and corporate revenue will definitely decline. Long-term insufficiency will definitely lead to layoffs or downsizing. Therefore, colleagues of foreign equipment manufacturers need to pay special attention.

Refuse to be a "screw"

The larger the company, the easier it is to form a "small society" within the enterprise.

If employees are in a large company, because they are well "protected" by the company, they are slow to respond to changes in the external environment and lack risk awareness.

"Are your company's products popular? Are there sales? In the competition with competitors, what state are you in? Are there any new changes in the trend of the entire industry?..." Many employees do not understand this, they only know how to do own business.

Some companies especially like to report good news instead of bad news. Every day, they send mass promotional emails, saying what kind of bid the company has won, what kind of award it has won, and what kind of customer praise it has won. This makes the internal employees lack a sense of crisis, thinking that the overall situation of the company is good.

Xiaozaojun has said before that the current company employs people very "smartly", especially large companies, like to "use an employee for small" - let him do a specific position and nest it into the whole process of the company, Make a "screw".

This is a "special screw". He may have strong business skills, but once he leaves the company, there is nowhere to go. This in turn leads to employees' dependence on the company and reduces the turnover rate.

For many companies, using employees is a balancing act of not wanting to make employees too weak or too strong. It is most beneficial for the company to make employees into "special screws".

From the perspective of employees, the company can treat you as a screw, but you must not treat yourself as a screw. An excellent employee should not only do the things in front of him, but also have the ability to do things end-to-end, be able to actively coordinate the resources of various departments, be able to perform multiple roles, work with their brains, get things done, and be perfect. .

Layoffs do not distinguish between you and me

Regarding layoffs, many people think that the performance of their department is good, and they are old employees or backbones of the department, so they will not be their turn for layoffs.

This kind of thinking is very dangerous. When the times abandon you, they will not say hello.

The current corporate layoffs, more and more "reorganization" layoffs, is the layoff of the entire department or the entire product line. The so-called "under the nest, how can there be any eggs", if this happens, no one will be spared.

The good performance of the department does not mean the good performance of the department. The good performance of the department does not mean the good performance of the company. The good performance of the branch does not mean the good performance of the parent company. In short, the top management of the company needs to consider the safety of the entire company under the pressure of performance. Every department, or an entire product line, can be a victim of sacrifice.

After the layoff decision is made, company leaders and HR need to face the departure and retention of hundreds or even tens of thousands of people. It is impossible to make proper arrangements for everyone, and it will only be a one-size-fits-all approach.

Now the company lays off employees, and the emphasis is on "short and smooth" - suddenly calling you for an interview, announcing on the spot, signing on the spot, and then within an hour, you will pack up and leave, and your authority will be blocked. This is a very cruel process and it can happen to anyone.

In fact, let alone middle-level or grass-roots level, even the high-level, the risk of unemployment is very high now.

Unemployment at the top is more a result of intense power and factional struggles. Sometimes, when the top management fails in the struggle and leaves, there will be a change in the staff below. The so-called "one emperor and one courtier" is staged every day.

What preparations are required?

It is not up to employees to decide whether a company lays off employees. However, in the face of potential unemployment risks, employees can prepare accordingly in advance.

The value of employees, summed up, is two words - ability and resources.

In terms of ability, many people will think that I have worked for more than ten years, and my ability is definitely no problem. Actually this is not necessarily the case. Many people's abilities are not as strong as they think. The reason why the company uses you is mostly just because you are familiar with it.

Today's young people are very powerful, they only need a short time to become familiar with your work. Their learning ability and energy are stronger than yours, and their competitiveness in the workplace is far better than yours.

Nowadays, the reason why a large number of salary “inversions” appear in the communication industry (the salary of new employees is higher than that of old employees) is that the technology is updated too fast, young people are willing to work overtime, study, and travel, and they are quick to accept new things. Easier to be brainwashed. Therefore, companies prefer to use young people. Employees over the age of 35 often become a burden to the company.

A common phenomenon in the domestic workplace is that many people are reluctant to continue to learn and update their knowledge.

Many of us grew up accustomed to learning by surprise. In order to go to school and find a job, they can work hard, read books and stay up late. However, once successful, they quickly dropped the study habit, reducing the study intensity from 200% to 10%.

In other words, many people's learning is driven by short-term goals rather than life habits with long-term goals. Without very clear goals, they do not learn and are reluctant to take the initiative to accept new knowledge. They get into their comfort zone quickly.

Nowadays, many companies only focus on employing people, regardless of how to train them, which is also one of the reasons for the problem.

As mentioned earlier, small-scale enterprises do not want employees to improve their abilities in all directions, but only want employees to do well in the tasks at hand. So, they deliberately limit the growth of their employees.

Moreover, some companies set a large workload for their employees, deliberately making them very hard, tired and numb, thus depriving them of time and passion for learning.

In fact, giving employees 20% of their free time can be useful. When employees have free time, they will summarize and review, think about how to improve their work, and put forward reasonable suggestions.

As far as the direction of ability improvement is concerned, many people learn everything because of anxiety. This is also obviously wrong.

A knowledge, if you don't use it for a long time, you will forget it after you learn it. A person's learning direction also needs to be carefully thought through. Either out of your own interest, or out of your own judgment on industry trends, or out of your own career planning, anyway, it should not be out of anxiety, let alone follow the trend and show off.

Let's talk resources.

China is a typical relational society, so in most cases, resources are more important than abilities.

The domestic system is not a completely market-oriented system. In most industries, the structure is dominated by state-owned enterprises. This determines that the survival of an enterprise is not entirely determined by products and services, but by other complex factors.

Why don't companies respect technical talents? On the one hand, China's long-term demographic dividend has brought labor dividends and engineer dividends, so supply exceeds demand, resulting in cheap talent costs. On the other hand, in the enterprise market competition, technical talents often cannot bring the same value of business resource talents.

This is the main reason why the internal market is often stronger than R&D, not because of user demand, but because market personnel play a greater role in resources and project success or failure. In other words, everyone's products are actually pretty much the same, depending on who has a stronger relationship with customers. Problems that cannot be solved by equipment can often be solved at the wine table. What really determines the share is often not the quality of the product, or even the price, but other factors.

The domestic awareness of intellectual property protection is very poor, and the law cannot give strong support. What small companies have worked so hard to make can be easily replicated by large companies using manpower or capital. This kind of atmosphere and environment cannot incubate truly competitive innovations. Without an innovative business environment, there is no long-term competitiveness. Relationships are greater than technology, greater than demand, and technical talents will be suppressed forever. In terms of core competitiveness, we will never catch up with foreign competitors.

Let's go back and talk about unemployment.

From a practical point of view, if the communicator wants to deal with the risk of unemployment, on the one hand, it is necessary to update and reserve capabilities, and on the other hand, it needs to work hard to mine resources. Get out of your own small circle, get out of your comfort zone, overcome social phobia, try to form an intersection with more circles, expand your knowledge system, and refresh your cognition of things. This is the advice I can give.

Of course, Xiaozaojun doesn't want everyone to make friends everywhere. In fact, everyone will find that there are many social processes based on resource exchange in society today, and the utility is very obvious. This socialization should be a small part of your overall socialization, not the whole.

Your existing capabilities and resources are the capital for you to integrate into other people's circles. Knowing someone doesn't mean they will help you. If people find you incompetent and have no resources, they will quickly exclude you from the circle. Social networking based on common interests, common values, and information sharing will be more valuable and more vital.

What if I get fired?

Finally, what should I do if I get laid off?

If you are suddenly laid off, you must first stabilize your mentality and don't panic. Then, you should quickly assess your current situation.

Anyone should have the ability to deal with "zero income for 6 months". Whether you and your family can afford it without any income for half a year is very important.

The biggest derivative risk of unemployment is supply cuts.

Correspondents over the age of 35 basically have certain assets and savings. If you put aside the loan factor, even if you lose your job on the spot, most people's short- and medium-term life will not be a problem.

The main reason is that I am afraid of taking out loans. The loan cutoff is very scary (now there are a lot of foreclosure houses on the market, and there are many news about the cutoff, everyone should have seen it), which will cause great economic losses. So, if you have a loan, be sure to prepare your cash flow in advance, just in case. If necessary, the credit lines of each bank are opened and reserved.

The current situation in the property market is also relatively delicate, with policy loosening occurring everywhere. There is definitely demand, but it is not necessarily as high as imagined, and it is mainly concentrated in first-tier cities. People have a habit of buying things, that is, "buying up and not buying down". The lower the price, the less people will buy it.

Whether real estate is still the first choice for asset preservation needs to be observed. Personally, I am not too optimistic. When the population inflection point occurs, it is inevitable that the supply will exceed the demand, and good houses will continue to rise. It is difficult to say outside the first-tier cities.

If there is no pressure to cut off the loan, it would be much better, at least there is no need to panic. If you encounter layoffs, on the one hand, you must strive for the most reasonable compensation for yourself. On the other hand, you can choose to rest or find a home as soon as possible according to your own situation.

In the past I would also suggest considering starting a business. Now, I don't dare to say that anymore. The macroeconomic situation is too poor, and the success rate of entrepreneurship is too low. If you don't do well, you will lose any of your savings.

Even if you plan to start your own business, I think you should follow your friends first, invest less money, and wade through water. Later, when the conditions are right, you can go it alone.

I personally think that after the male compatriots reach the age of 40, they must have their own careers. Working part-time all your life, and being scolded at the nose by a leader younger than you in your 40s, this kind of life is still a bit like that.

If you are looking for a home, it is time to give full play to your resource advantages.

I personally suggest that when looking for a home at this time, don't be too picky. You can use the mentality of "riding a donkey to find a horse". If there is a suitable one, do it first, and then see if there is a better one. Especially if the financial pressure is high (have a mortgage), it is relatively safe to have a suitable job first.

As for whether or not to change industries, it still depends on your personal career plan. The industry is dead, people are alive, don't let it go if you have the opportunity, and don't let the industry limit you.

The communication industry is relatively narrow, and there is not much room for development. There are only a few big companies in the industry, and the choice is very small. In contrast, the information industry is much larger, and there are many small and medium-sized enterprises. The sponge effect is obvious, and it is suitable to take up a pit. There are still many opportunities for the digitalization of government and enterprises, and the threshold is very low. People with a background in the communications industry can be considered familiar.

Epilogue

Well, the above is all that Xiaozaojun wants to say today.

In life, the most important thing is to plan ahead. Your best bet to make yourself less passive in times of crisis is to prepare in advance.

Work and life are boring and easily numb. Boiled frogs in warm water is the state of many correspondents, especially middle-aged correspondents. A lot of my ex-colleagues are like this. I am a special case. I chose "active unemployment" on a whim, which is a blessing in disguise. In the past few years, my harvest is far greater than before unemployment, I do not regret, but very happy.

Many people feel they cannot afford to lose their jobs. In fact, this is too underestimated. Everyone's energy is very strong. Sometimes, when you push yourself, you can stimulate the energy and walk out of a new world. Therefore, even if you are unemployed, it really doesn't matter. Life is a long way to go. You don't have a father here, you have a place to keep your father.

Come on! Correspondent!